Mega Evolution Era: One Year In, A Set-by-Set Performance Audit

Twelve months into the Mega Evolution block, the per-set returns are wider than any era we have tracked. The flagship release outperformed every other modern set on a market-cap basis, while two of the mid-cycle expansions are trading below MSRP at the sealed level.

The pattern is consistent with prior eras: marquee chase cards drive the index, and sets without a clear chase regress to print cost. Buyers who concentrated on the top three alt arts of each set have outperformed a passive index of every Mega Evolution print by a wide margin.

What we are watching next: secondary print runs of the flagship set are rumored for the back half of the year. Historically that flattens the sealed curve for two to three quarters before single-card scarcity reasserts itself.